Age expectancy

As I am not feeling great today, and some mention of mortality statistics attracted my attention on television the other evening (not that I am feeling that bad!) I thought I would take a look at the life expectancies of people in the UK.
The National Statistics Office publish this information, but something has always intrigued me - their figures don't take account of the future trends - so what happens if you try to model future performance based on the past?

The baseline from their data shows my expected age at death is increasing with the passing years (as we might expect with improvements to health care):

This looks like a fairly straight line, and indeed we can fit it with y=0.2648x+67.871 (R^2 = 0.9944) which means I am actually due to peg it at around 92 years of age. Ignoring things like medical history and lifestyle, of course, as these are averages from the population we are dealing with here.

Interestingly though, a better fit for the data (and one which exemplifies why you shouldn't just go for a good fit without some basis for the model!) is y = 0.0028x^2 + 0.1121x + 69.815 (R^2 = 0.9993). This predicts I will live to 145. And the best bit is that if I can just hold out until I am 173 I should become immortal (maybe cryogenics?). So, that isn't a particularly good model, I suspect ;-) However, it does also suggest that when I was born I would have had an age expectancy of about 69 years, which I think is roughly right. So do I get 80 years in retirement? How can I possibly afford that?!

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